Chairman Max Baucus is not happy about the Mickinsey study that state 30% of employers will drop their group health plans after 2014. Chairman Baucus has order a full disclosure on the methodology of the study.
It will be interesting to see what methodology was used.
Being a health insurance broker with extensive experience in the small group market I think 30% is low. Groups under 100 lives I think we could see 50% of groups drop traditional employer sponsored health plans. This is not to say they will not replace them with some other approach to health care under the health care reform. If employers can establish other qualified health plans through the exchange or guaranteed issued individual policies they will.
At this point I am not sure how large groups are going to be able to drop group health plans. These plans are about attracting talented employees and retaining them.
As Chairman Baucus reviews the methodology of the Mickinsey study he should also review the methodology of how the health care reform law was developed.